Photo-illustration by Realtor.com; Source: Getty Images (5)
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump will meet on Thursday night for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, and sparks are sure to fly.
While millions across the country will be tuning in, the most important viewers for each candidate to win over will be voters in the seven battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the election.
Recent polling from those swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—shows that housing affordability is among the top concerns of likely voters.
An Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month showed that “housing affordability and availability” was tied with health care as the fifth most important issue facing the country among registered voters in swing states.
Voters in the Southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada ranked housing issues even higher, as the fourth-biggest issue for the nation, after inflation, immigration, and political extremism.
A separate poll of five swing states, from left-leaning research firm HIT Strategies, found a major gap between how little voters are hearing from candidates on rent and housing, and how significant those issues are in their lives.
The gap was more pronounced among younger voters aged 18 to 49, with 49% saying they had not heard politicians discuss housing affordability much or at all, compared with 73% who said that their personal situation would be improved by solutions on that issue.
In the Ipsos poll, Trump held a narrow lead across all the swing states in a two-way matchup, with 50% of registered voters preferring the Republican to Biden’s 47%.
But among voters who list housing affordability as their top concern, Biden held a lead of 52% to Trump’s 44%, suggesting that the Democrat could seek to press the issue to his advantage in the debate.
In recent days, Biden has dispatched top Cabinet members to announce new administration efforts to boost the housing supply and lower housing costs.
On Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris joined HUD acting Secretary Adrianne Todman in Philadelphia to announce $85 million in grant funding for a program that aims to reduce barriers to affordable housing and lower housing costs.
“President Biden and I believe that every American deserves affordable housing, so they have a roof over their head and a place to call home,” said Harris in a prepared statement.
Meanwhile in Minneapolis, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared at a new affordable housing development on Monday. There she unveiled other administration efforts to boost the housing supply, including a $100 million program to support the financing of thousands of additional affordable housing units.
Biden might plan to highlight those recent announcements at the debate, although the candidates will face questions that are at the sole discretion of CNN’s debate moderators.
Trump hasn’t made housing costs a key issue of his campaign, although he has floated a proposal to boost the housing supply by building new “Freedom Cities” on federal land.
His campaign has also said that he plans to lower housing costs by curbing regulations and halting illegal border crossings.
What voters are hoping to hear on housing affordability at the debate likely depends on their current situation, says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
“Homeowners who don’t have a desire to move are somewhat insulated from housing market trends” and are likely taking advantage of low fixed-rate mortgages or even outright ownership, she says.
But first-time homebuyers and those seeking to move are feeling the pinch of high home prices and mortgage rates, which together have roughly doubled homebuying costs over the past four to five years, says Hale.
“A unifying theme for households is that housing costs are likely the biggest budget item, which makes it an important kitchen table issue that candidates can’t ignore in an election year,” she says.
The first 2024 presidential debate will air at 9 p.m. EST on Thursday, June 27, on CNN. Viewers without cable can watch for free on CNN.com or the PBS livestream on YouTube.