Election 2024: How Trump vs. Harris Could Shape Taxes, Home Prices and Grocery Costs

Election 2024: How Trump vs. Harris Could Shape Taxes, Home Prices and Grocery Costs 1

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Where do Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand on the issues that matter the most to your wallet? Let MarketWatch take you on a tour of the two presidential candidates’ policies.

With Tuesday’s election rapidly approaching, and with the economy consistently cited as a top concern by voters, here is a selection of stories from MarketWatch’s reporters on key economic and money issues.

Tax breaks and hikes

Both Harris and Trump have floated a wide variety of tax breaks (and, for Harris, some increases), including eliminating taxes on tips.

Trump would extend all of the 2017 tax cuts, which expire next year. Harris has said she would raise taxes only on Americans making more than $400,000 a year.

Housing costs

Harris and Trump have proposed a variety of ways to address the cost of housing. Demand-side measures include offering people money up front to help them buy homes, while supply-side measures include providing incentives for builders to construct more houses.

Harris wants to provide up to $25,000 in down-payment support for first-time home buyers, as well as a $10,000 tax credit. Trump has, among other proposals, floated a loosening of zoning rules to bring down costs.

Oil and natural gas

A win by Trump would encourage more drilling for oil and gas, analysts believe. The former president says unleashing energy production would help fight inflation.

Under President Joe Biden, there has been record high production of both commodities. It’s difficult to see how the oil and gas industry has been significantly impeded by a Democratic administration, Bill Weatherburn of Capital Economics wrote in a recent note.

Tariffs and their costs

Slapping tariffs on foreign goods imported into the U.S. is a hallmark of Trump’s plans, with the former president asserting that such fees will revitalize factory jobs and bring in revenue. Harris has blasted Trump’s plans for tariffs, knocking them as a “sales tax” — but she hasn’t disavowed using tariffs herself.

Analysts at Barclays have estimated that a scenario in which a Trump administration imposes 10% tariffs on all imports and a 60% tax on goods coming from China would reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by 3.2% in 2025, with another hit of 1.5% after U.S. trading partners implement retaliatory tariffs of their own.

Medicare and Social Security

Medicare and Social Security are perennial issues for many voters. In August, Trump told AARP that he would protect the Social Security Trust Fund with “growth,” and said he wanted to avoid increasing the age of eligibility for benefits. Harris told the organization that she’d shore up the program by “making billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share in taxes.”

In comments to AARP about Medicare, Harris and Trump gave similar answers as they did about Social Security. Harris vowed to protect Medicare via taxes on the wealthy, while Trump said: “Growth is a very big factor in everything I say.”

Student loans

Harris has touted the Biden administration’s efforts to reform the student-loan system and has said that she would continue the administration’s efforts to “lower costs, make higher education more affordable and relieve the burden of student debt.”

Trump hasn’t said much about how he would approach student loans as president, but he’s been critical of Biden’s student-loan forgiveness initiatives, and Republican policy makers have looked to block them in Congress and in court.

Grocery prices

Harris has proposed a federal ban on price gouging that would stop grocery chains, food suppliers and other businesses from allegedly running prices up for consumers. Trump has claimed the move would actually drive prices higher and has repeatedly attacked the Biden-Harris administration over rising prices.

The so-called core rate of inflation that omits food and energy remained well above the Federal Reserve’s target in the latest reading, at 2.7%. Yet the Fed’s preferred PCE index rose at a lower 2.1% pace in the 12 months that ended in September, slightly above the central bank’s 2% target.

MarketWatch’s Jeffry Bartash, Jillian Berman, Andrew Keshner, Chris Matthews, Aarthi Swaminathan, Victor Reklaitis and Myra P. Saefong contributed.

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